I want to find out what the % chance that Kindling Mass has to advance onto the next stage.
What I got: (could be wrong ofc)
3d 18h = 90h
90h = 5400 minutes (average minutes it takes for Kindling to fully grow)
Kindling has a chance to advance onto the next stage every in-game day (24 minutes)
There are 7 stages for the kindling to grow (it starts on stage 1 and is ready as soon as it hits stage 8)
The average amount of in-games days it takes for a kindling to fully grow is 5400 (minutes) divided by 24 (1 in-game day) = 225 (in-game days)
225 in-game days / 7 (stages) = 32.1 (42857…)
SO, is the % chance that a kindling plant has to advance onto the next stage 32.1%?
Which seems incredibly high, and therefore incredibly wrong.
So do I then have to divide 32.142857 by 7? (for the 7 stages) which = 4.59%
Figured out by @Logar:
225 in-game days / 7 = 32.142857 (average in-games days to advance 1 stage)
100% / 32.142857 = 3.111% chance every in-game day (24 minutes) to advance to the next stage
Looks good and is just missing one final step:
It takes 32.1 to advance one stage with is 100% progress.
Now 100% / 32.142857 days = 3.111% per day to advance.
@Gorillastomp - Yeh 3d 18h is the average, and 168 minutes is the fastest I can possible be (albeit an extremely small %)
@Lorgar - Thank you!! I see I messed up by using 32.142857 as a % and not as days. That makes total sense now, cheers Lorgar!
@Apt - The schooling system is missing a trick, relate maths to video games and you’re sorted
@molav - Oh no idea, the Farming Epic doubles the effectiveness of Fertiliser and Fertilisers duration also has a chance per in-game day to fall off, so one would only be able to figure out how much fertiliser would help if it had 100% up time, which is unrealistic
Just to add to the fun:
To actually see 168 minutes you have to hit the 3.11% exactly 7 times.
That is 0.0311 ^ 7 = 0.00000000282%
So on a farm with 10k kindlings you may see it once every 3.5 million plantings
