Well at least I know I’m not just being paranoid!
It’s still like this for me on some days when I’m only forging one at a time. Just RNG, I believe
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If youd like, i can run a pile of these via the test server and post the results…
Were there particular compounds you wanted looked at jic that makes a difference?
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This is the issue with rng based systems. Negativity bias makes it seem like a given process is unfair etc. I bet if you run 100 forges of this on test it would show that it is just random.
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It was mostly rolling devastating damage, as that always the first boon I aim for.
But I did notice a difference with the return of items after using deconstruction resin as well, I was much more likely to get mats returned with single forges.
It seemed! 
Are we absolutely positive that the test forge runs exactly the same as live?
Quite possibly, it just stuck out like a sore thumb!
And I know it was a small sample, but 2 multi forges in a row needing 15+ attempts followed by 2 single forges only needing 2 attempts, with exactly the same criteria does suggest a difference.
RNG is RNG,
.>> Insert random stuff of how Trundamere hates RNG in the forge <<
and as such it is more likely you are just experiencing a bad bit of RNG, due to the way the law of large numbers can work, when you look at small sample sizes.
And due to the way RNG works, any speculation and testing to prove anything is extremely hard to do.
and since this is a re-run I will link below my prior response
That is the definition of random. You could get 100 fails as you always start at the same place. 100 iterations is actually to small a sample set but would give you a rough idea. To really start pinning numbers you would need more like 1000 iterations. Also if you had gotten great rolls on the first iteration of mass forge would you be posting about it? This is where negativity bias comes into play =)
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Nope, we do not know that they are the same. But ive not noticed the difference and I’ve forged quite a lot in both. And its probably safe to assume that a code change which impacts rng in general or the forge itself will cause differences in results. Ive probably forged hundreds and hundreds of items between the two systems. Perhaps there is a relatively cheap method to compare them. A few hundred gums and compounds perhaps… Hmmmm
I forge a good amount on average. (Usually anywhere between 10-40 forges every other night or so) but I usually do smart stacks of 9. Even with the smart stacks I’ll have some that are perfect fist try, and some that take a large 10 tries or so. I see that much difference even within smart stacks on the regular basis, so I’m about 80% confident that it’s just rng. Would be interesting to see though if someone can run a test.
Has anyone pulled the actual numbers for gums ect from the game files in the same way I have seen prestige values pulled?
idk if this is what you mean.
More like what the percentages are for the gums ect. I would love to know what the real percentage of trait reduction gum for instance.
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I do know that if you stack a gum up to about 12 it acts pretty reliably as a trait reduction as well. Even with other additive gums (at much less than 12). Its kind of weird to watch a trait or two scaling up to 10/10 when you have other gums applied at the same time.
idk what are the numbers but i feel you can’t get 100%. tried 14 longevity gum once and i still get glow boon.
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Haha, yeah been there too!!! I almost felt like i won I was so surprised. … But then I realized I had really really lost
I also had the feeling of bias in the rng but I also know that feeling is a bad indicator. So I started to note down my results.
Data for using single special gum:
208 tries
- 70 times AOE (34%)
- 85 times magnetic (41%)
- 53 times others (25%)
All these were done with 5 to 9 items in the stack.
Result is that I had some minor bad luck with magnetic preference but looks correct so far.
What I would be interested in is a comparison of what you have done (thanks for posting!) with someone doing the same with a single tool forge.
Cannot provide single forge statistics but have calculated my last results to show the big variance to get desired result.
Everything is 5 to 9 item forges with same forging strategy.
All forges are damage, AOE and a 100% boon (longetivity or lightness) on tools
| # | Retries |
|---|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| 2 | 21 |
| 3 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 |
| 6 | 12 |
| 7 | 2 |
| 8 | 16 |
Average is 8.63 retries but sample size is still too small to prove this average. Just shows the wild swings encountered from 0 to 21 retries so far.
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Glad i’m not the only one, I’ve noticed this too. I’ve had requests off friends to do the odd 2-3 forges of an item, works out cheaper for me long run sometimes for me to do these as singles to get the boons quicker.