Experimenting to test forge boon bias

I mean boon categories.

Sorry about that last paragraph (the confusing one?) I was trying to convey how to measure the strength of gums better, and there is a formula, but I thought words would be easier. To measure the strength of the gum to a greater precision (1) use a single lightness gum and record the number of speed boons that appear and/or (2) conduct more trials.

Ok, let’s do some examples.

First off let’s look at a hammer with no gums applied. First I will write out the weights for each boon. (I can’t find an easy way to make a table so I will use abbreviations.)

AOE: 1
Mag: 1
Dam: 1
H-H: 1
SPD: 1
DUR: 1
ENG: 1
LUC: 1
GLO: 1

The sum of the weights is 9, so we divide all of the weights by 9 in order to get probabilities (remember you can multiply the probability by 100 to convert it to a percentage, 0.11->11%):

AOE: 0.11
Mag: 0.11
Dam: 0.11
H-H: 0.11
SPD: 0.11
DUR: 0.11
ENG: 0.11
LUC: 0.11
GLO: 0.11

Not surprising, with no gums each of the 9 boons has a probability of 1 in 9.
Now let’s repeat with a special gum. First the weights (I will use my deduced gum strength, x=10):

AOE: 11
Mag: 11
Dam: 1
H-H: 1
SPD: 1
DUR: 1
ENG: 1
LUC: 1
GLO: 1

The sum of the weights is 29, let’s divide everything by 29 to get the probabilities.

AOE: 0.38
Mag: 0.38
Dam: 0.03
H-H: 0.03
SPD: 0.03
DUR: 0.03
ENG: 0.03
LUC: 0.03
GLO: 0.03

So with a single gum the probability for mag collector and aoe are both 38%. Let’s compare this with what happens if you used a single lightness gum instead. First the weights:

AOE: 1
Mag: 1
Dam: 1
H-H: 1
SPD: 11
DUR: 1
ENG: 1
LUC: 1
GLO: 1

The sum of the weights is 19. Then the probabilities:

AOE: 0.05
Mag: 0.05
Dam: 0.05
H-H: 0.05
SPD: 0.58
DUR: 0.05
ENG: 0.05
LUC: 0.05
GLO: 0.05

So with a single gum SPD has a 58% chance of appearing. Notice how the weight gets added to the boon directly. When we used a special gum 20 points were added to the weight (10 to special and 10 to aoe). Whereas with a lightness gum 10 points were added to the weight (10 to SPD). With a special gum the chance of getting other boons was 3% but with a lightness gum the chance of getting other boons was 5%.

Ok, let’s try 2 special gum since that is OP’s original trial

AOE: 21
Mag: 21
Dam: 1
H-H: 1
SPD: 1
DUR: 1
ENG: 1
LUC: 1
GLO: 1

The sum of the weights is 49. Next the probabilities:

AOE: 0.43
Mag: 0.43
Dam: 0.02
H-H: 0.02
SPD: 0.02
DUR: 0.02
ENG: 0.02
LUC: 0.02
GLO: 0.02

So we have a probability of special boons of 86% and a probability of other boons of 14%. Remember OP got special boons 82 times and other boons 18 times.

Now, the probabilities I gave were for the case where there are no boons set yet. What happens if there are already some boons filled in? Let’s suppose we do the 2 special gums, and the first boon that appears is aoe. Now we apply compounds again, what happens? The probabilities are exactly the same!!! However, the 43% chance for aoe means the boon receives points to level up. That is a different than setting a boon.

So let’s try a different question. What will boon 2 be? Obviously it cannot be aoe since aoe is already on the board. If you hit aoe’s probability of 43% points go into it, but boon 2 is not decided, so you can essentially just ignore it. Here are the weights for boon 2:

Mag: 21
Dam: 1
H-H: 1
SPD: 1
DUR: 1
ENG: 1
LUC: 1
GLO: 1

The sum of the weights is 28. And the probabilities:

Mag: 0.75
Dam: 0.036
H-H: 0.036
SPD: 0.036
DUR: 0.036
ENG: 0.036
LUC: 0.036
GLO: 0.036

It’s almost certainly going to be magnetic collector.

OK, let’s suppose you get real lucky and get the 3 boons set which you wanted, AOE, Damage, and SPD. And you still have the 2 special boons up on the board. Which boons do the boon points go into? It uses the same math. This time we cannot get hard-hitter, mag collector, durability, energy, critically lucky, or glow. Only the 3 set boons can receive points. Still the gum affects which boon receives the points. First the weights:

AOE: 21
Dam: 1
SPD: 1

The sum of the weights is 23. And the probabilities:

AOE: 0.91
Dam: 0.04
SPD: 0.04

Ok, I think I did most of the main calculations. Let me know if you have any other questions. We are very close to the keys to the kingdom, can you find them? And also, let us know if you are willing to do some experiments. I know it is boring, I only did 100 of each trial myself, but I think all here would be interested in knowing more about the gums and that requires testing.

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