Experimenting to test forge boon bias

No, but consistently hhhtttthhhttttthhh with no htht would seem a little off.

Granted I was not specifically recording that, and would have to retest recording the pattern as well as the results.

2 Likes

Sometimes I think it is thoā€¦ I mean, having equal amount of Effect AND Special gums active, then getting magnet, transmute, get hard hitter, transmute, and then the game gets all fancy ā€œoh you didnā€™t like anything from those 2 categories? I give you a random one!ā€, glow

2 Likes

I was forging 2 hammers for T3 land clearing.I got magnet nonstop. Probably used 20 Decon 3 in a row before actually finishing the hammer. When using special gum I was getting ease and lightness as well landing along with glow. For little bit i was wondering if i was just using the wrong gums!

So i actually did this while that other thread was ongoing but never posted it. Hereā€™s a sample look at two possible ways for first boon selection to be done, each allowing for different changes to weighting.

Itā€™s also VERY possible for time or another factor to be impacting the RNG selection, even if itā€™s not directly invoked into the weighting for the ā€˜rollā€™. Iā€™ve heard people address these long runs both by stopping for a while, or in some cases moving to another forge.

2 gums is probably not nearly optimal since I can definitely say that even with 5 gums you have a notable chance of a random boon type still.

My sample size is very limited compared to some of the people posting here and Iā€™m not keeping stats but it wouldnā€™t surprise me at all if the weighting for specific boons varies per tool type as well.

3 Likes

This is very interesting! What was your sample size?

Also, I wonder if thereā€™s a point where the returns diminish, or if they go negative. I feel like if I put over four, it ends up not being nearly as effective. I wonder if thereā€™s something in the code that it canā€™t process over a certain chance of certain things.

Also, certain tools have more or less boons, so it would also change the probability too.

How many special gums were you using?

2 special gums

Lol, we need to make our sacrifices to the Oortian Forge Gods for better luck then it seems!

Do you use any of the boon removals or transmutes? Might help better then deconstructing each time. Thoughā€¦ I donā€™t know whatā€™s actually cheaper.

If youā€™re asking me, those are just some example numbers. I couldnā€™t resist the jab at glow heaven help us if itā€™s really weighted like that.

My comment about sample size is just that Iā€™ve only run a few tens of forging sessions, probably less than 60 so Iā€™m not exactly a ā€˜seasoned forgerā€™.

Iā€™ve wondered this myself. I rarely have used more than 5 gums but it seems possible and in line with tactics like having the max AoE boon being an undesirable one. There have to be diminishing returns with additional gums. Going negative would be another cruel trick lol.

Yeah this is just a hammer/shovel/axe boon list.

I use defect removal at end of forging

1 Like

I just want to add my two cents and say that I have seen a 50/50 ratio between AOE and mag collector, except when using boon removal. That stuff I only use on single trait forges because all too often you kill way too much vigour/stability before you get what you need. It works great with trait reduction gum when that sneaky boon decides to add itself tho.

If you use the boon removal solvents you can reroll boons without deconstructing.

It can be a bit difficult, I give you that. For most forges Iā€™ve got enough vigour for about 2-4 rerolls, and if I donā€™t get it in that, deconstruct!

1 Like

True but with the way I forge do not have room in my deck.

Ooh got ya! That can definitely be a drawback. Iā€™m so interested in how others forge! I usually donā€™t venture out of my norm too much because defects scare me :sweat_smile:

1 Like

I highly doubt the servers have the capacity to remember your last forge result and have that affect your next boon selection. RNG just being RNG. This is simulating a 45/45/10 chance, you often get streaks of 10+ failed aoe rolls.

https://boundless.mayumi.fi/rng/
(green = aoe, red = magnet, yellow = other)

You just easily remember times like this
image

7 Likes

I see a Horse! :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes::sunglasses::joy:

image

4 Likes

Iā€™m looking for the horse now lol.

Of course :sweat_smile: