Of course 
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I easily remember theses times because they seem to happen all the times I forgeâŚmaybe i need to forge on a full moon while the tide is low and standing on one foot? 
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I also remember hitting regen on bombs for 10 times in a row, or damage as the first boon, but the failure streaks stay in my memory for longer. Iâll gladly be proven wrong, but if the crops canât remember their planting time to ease the rng, because of data limitations, I donât think the forge can be any more complicated 
I would gladly make book if you folks want to start placing bets on forging outcomes.
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In dont even want to think about farming RNG.
Between 13:15 and 14:24 UTC on a base where coords and altitude are all 2 digit numbers.
Itâs different if youâre in USW though. Also make sure your forge faces east and donât put coils on all four sides of it.
Occamâs razor is no fun though!
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I think i may trying logging out and back in on bad forging streaks. See if that tricks the system. Or just make my forger jump from the top of the dome and hit the marble. 
A forging sacrifice?
i am TOTALLY DOING THAT. Im puting in a portal to our âsoon-to-be-once-placeable-lava-releasesâ vulcano. Every time i hit an awful streak Im jumping in.
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Negativity bias is real.
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Fo sure. Itâs also a crucial survival trait we can thank evolution for it.
@Mayumichi itâs hard to find this just looking at that graphic, if you still have the data it was generated with, whatâs the longest success streak?
Assuming it reads left to right I canât spot 16 consecutive fails either. Just looking briefly I did spot 11 though.
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Indeed and as a game designer you have to look at ways to trick peoples innate sense of negativity bias. Generally this done through reframing the experience. One example of this is the WoW experience deficit. The first iteration had you lose xp gain as you played for longer and people hated it. They reframed it by setting the xp gain at a lower level and when you were not playing you got âextraâ xp which built up the longer you did not play. This changed the frame of losing xp for playing to gaining xp for taking a break.
Would be nice if they did something like that with the forge lol.
It was generated with the script linked at the bottom of that post. Boundless RNG Simulator I added a longest success streak counter in there, but I canât re-generate the same exact data that was in the screenshot. In theory the success streak should be a little bit shorter than failure, since the yellows also count as fail.
But I found the 16 streak in the image! 
These are the typical numbers after a few runs, 16 fail streak is pretty uncommon. This data comes from a different generation run obviously. Not going to spam more images like that, so just the longest streaks.
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Ah i wasnât counting yellows so that makes more sense. Thanks for the clarification.
Itâd be pretty cool if we could get enough data to figure out how much weight gums add. Itâd be possible to build a forge simulator with that!
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Maybe we should have every forger do 100 forges using the different gums and see what happens and record it using a certain standard?
We could make a forum post list just for the results.
Do 100 forges with 1 gum applied. Then do 100 with 2 and then 3 etc. 100 iterations will not be enough for very exact numbers but will elucidate the rough numbers. I am surprised no one has done this on test up to this point. If no one else has done so I will do it this weekend and post my results. I will do 1-4 gums for special on hammer/axe/shovel
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Precisely, but if we have every forger do it 100 times, we should get a much larger sample size that way.
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To get the full picture weâd need data from two gums, preferably one with many boons, and one with less. Since we donât know if the game rolls from a weighted table of all boons, or first just the category and then the boon from that category. Or do we already know and I just havenât seen it?
I was so happy when @lucadeltodecso shared the crop growing algorithm, dev insight is always the best. But itâs possible to get a rough idea from a large enough data sample too. I should find time to do some testing myself tooâŚ
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I love this person. Also instantly cleared up settlements breaking when empires was released and gave some very straight answers about footfall and other issues as well.
The forge is a pretty complex system. With the RNG element having impact at two or more stages for each round it seems like they could be a little more open about how the system works without removing the random elements that so many people find frustrating, challenging, or whatever their personal feelings about the RNG and weighting are.